Energy amid uncertainty
December 16, 2022The fundamentals of the uranium market are solid as the world accepts renewable power alone will not deliver enough power.
Nuclear and hydropower form the backbone of low-carbon baseload electricity generation, providing three-quarters of global low-carbon generation, according to the Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System Fuel report from May 2019.
The global response has been palpable, with the UK, China and even Japan, and others spearheading a global shift in sentiments towards nuclear energy. As the climate crisis worsens, the discussion intensifies over what role nuclear power should play in fighting it.
The 2021 edition of the World Nuclear Association’s ‘Stated Policies Scenario’ is forecasting a nuclear capacity growth of over 26 per from 2020 to 2050 (reaching about 525 GWe), meaning a reliable supply of uranium will be needed to meet demand which is forecast to increase critical to rise to 79,400 metric tonnes of elemental uranium (MTU) in 2030 and 112,300 MTU in 2040. In 2021, global uranium demand from nuclear reactors was estimated at 62,500 MTU.
The move has been fueled by the acceptance of uranium by leading nations as the only alternative to fossil fuels to deliver a sustainable baseload power source capable of supporting 65 to 75 per cent of global renewable energy targets.
New reactor builds are being announced with almost unprecedented regularity, adding to the fuel supply requirements.
This acceptance paints a rosy picture for quality uranium producers to meet energy producers’ demand for reliable supply.
Aura Energy (ASX: AEE) is expecting the Final Investment Decision on its 800,000 pounds per annum Tiris uranium project in the low-risk jurisdiction of Mauritania by early 2023 and mammoth expansion following production in 2024.
Aura’s Tiris project is one of uranium’s few near-term development prospects. The Definitive Feasibility Study highlights the potential for the planned mammoth upgrade leading to low project CAPEX of US$74.8M and an All-in Sustaining Cost of below $30/lb U3O8. T
Tiris Uranium Project
With Tiris Resource’s recent beneficiation pilot plant providing a great opportunity by confirming up to 600 per cent upgrade of uranium grade and just a fraction of the resources utilised, Aura’s Acting CEO Will Goodall is understandably upbeat.
“We converted 19Mlbs U3O8 at 100ppm cut off to Measured and Indicated status to support the Reserves (8.8Mlb at 175ppm cutoff) Feasibility Study production targets, and there is plenty of scope to increase this proportion.
“The infill drilling this year has been undertaken to push the proportion of the measured and indicated resource up to support expanded production targets and make the best use of the resource.
So, if anything, we should say that historic drilling hadn’t converted the optimal number of Inferred Resources to M&I.
“We have a high level of confidence with a 65 per cent conversion of hitting or coming close to our target because while the mineralisation on the short scale is variable – on the long scale is consistent, which will give us sufficient material to expand our aspirational 3 million pounds per annum production rate.”
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